Hard to believe it’s that time of the year again, but here we are in mid-December. Who’s ready for the 2026 mortgage rate predictions?
Ready or not, everyone is beginning to weigh in and that means I need to as well.
Before I do, let’s take a second to look back at my 2025 predictions.
I called for a range of 5.875% to 6.75%, which was slightly exceeded at times and as you probably know, a hair high.
We never got to sub-6% in 2025 (yet!), but we’re certainly close and I do expect it to happen in 2026. So something to look forward to.
Before I give you all my predictions for 2026, let’s take a look at predictions from other industry heavyweights to see what they think.
I will say that the main takeaway thus far is your typical pundit or forecast is pretty flat.
Most expect mortgage rates to kind of hover at current levels and not do a whole lot in 2026.
My take on that is A) we always see a lot of movement in rates in any given year, even if they wind up in the same place from January to December.
For example, they might start at 6.25% and end at 6.25%. but they likely won’t stay there all year long.
There will be ups and downs along the way, and thus lots of opportunities to lock in a better mortgage rate. So stay vigilant!
My other thought is that B) the consensus is usually, drum roll, wrong! So if everyone expects the same thing to happen, chances are they’ll all be wrong.
So yes, you know I’m going to go against the grain and be the contrarian I typically am. But for good reason.
MBA 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.4%
Second quarter 2026: 6.4%
Third quarter 2026: 6.4%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.4%
As stated, the word of the year for 2026 mortgage rates is “flat.” Everyone seems to think they’ll do absolutely nothing.
It’s pretty lame to be honest. For example, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is simply going with 6.4% for the 30-year fixed for every quarter of 2026, based on their December 12th Mortgage Finance Forecast.
It doesn’t get any more boring than that, especially when their current forecast is 6.3% for Q4 2025.
They basically expect nothing to happen, which doesn’t give us a lot to work with.
I guess the silver lining is they don’t expect mortgage rates to go up!
Redfin 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.3%
Second quarter 2026: 6.3%
Third quarter 2026: 6.3%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.3%
Ready for an equally boring mortgage rate forecast? Well, I’ve got one for you, and it comes courtesy of Redfin.
Like the MBA, they are calling flat mortgage rates for ALL of 2026. But instead of an average of 6.4% each quarter, they went with 6.3%.
Not much to chew on here. The real estate brokerage, now owned by Rocket, believes the Fed has arrived at a “neutral place” and that “should keep mortgage rates in the low-6% range.”
Again, at least they’re not calling for higher mortgage rates, so there’s that.
Realtor 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.3%
Second quarter 2026: 6.3%
Third quarter 2026: 6.3%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.3%
And how about Realtor’s forecast. They expect the 30-year fixed to “average 6.3% across 2026.”
In other words, the exact same forecast of Redfin. They call it a “slight improvement” from the 6.6% average seen in 2025.
But it will remain “well above the 4% historic average recorded from 2013 to 2019.”
Fannie Mae 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6.2%
Second quarter 2026: 6.1%
Third quarter 2026: 6.0%
Fourth quarter 2026: 5.9%
Finally, a 2026 mortgage rate forecast that has some movement. Granted, it’s not a ton, but it’s something.
In Fannie Mae’s latest Housing Forecast from November 13th, they’re calling relatively flat interest rates next year, which slowly descend.
They start around 6.2% and finish the year around 5.9%, falling about 10 basis points each quarter.
I’ve been around long enough to know mortgage rates don’t move in a straight line up or down. But the general takeaway is they expect them to improve further by the end of 2026.
Again, in line with other forecasts.
Freddie Mac 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2026: n/a
Second quarter 2026: n/a
Third quarter 2026: n/a
Fourth quarter 2026: n/a
For whatever reason, Freddie Mac is no longer providing any sort of forward guidance on housing, including mortgage rates
This despite conducting a weekly mortgage rate survey that is one of the oldest and most reported on.
Last year they at least had a monthly outlook we could use for rough estimates. Now that’s gone too.
It’s unclear why but they don’t seem to be investing much in research and forecasts anymore.
NAR 2026 Mortgage Rate Outlook
First quarter 2026: 6.0%
Second quarter 2026: 6.0%
Third quarter 2026: 6.0%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.0%
Next up is the National Association of Realtors, always good for a rosy mortgage rate outlook.
Like the others, they’re going with flat mortgage rates, but at a slightly better 6.0% even.
And if that materializes, they say “it would mark a full percentage point drop from the roughly 7% average at the start of 2025.”
As a result, they believe it could unlock roughly 5.5 million additional qualified home buyers nationwide.
That includes 1.6 million who are currently renting, who would finally be able to “make the leap into homeownership.”
I’m surprised they didn’t go sub-6% given they are usually the most optimistic, but I digress.
Wells Fargo 2026 Mortgage Rate Outlook
First quarter 2026: 6.15%
Second quarter 2026: 6.15%
Third quarter 2026: 6.20%
Fourth quarter 2026: 6.20%
Did I mention most of these forecasts are calling for flat mortgage rates? Welp, here’s another one courtesy of former top mortgage lender Wells Fargo.
In their 2026 Annual Economic Outlook, they said “we do not foresee a material decline in mortgage rates next year” and expect “mortgage rates to remain stuck above 6% over the next few years.”
So this might be as good as it gets for some time. But again, not getting any worse.
Zillow 2026 Mortgage Rate Predictions
First quarter 2026: 6%+
Second quarter 2026: 6%+
Third quarter 2026: 6%+
Fourth quarter 2026: 6%+
Then there’s Zillow, which has been making the headlines for various reasons all year.
Whether it’s sparring with real estate brokerage Compass or attempting to grow Zillow Home Loans, apparently with the help of some in-house referrals.
To their credit, they do liken predicting mortgage rates to being “about as difficult as predicting next year’s weather forecast,” even for the experts.
So they’re simply going with the line: “Mortgage rates will hold above 6%.”
Again, a safe one and the takeaway is flat once again.
Compass, First American, and Other Rate Predictions
Lastly (before my predictions), we have Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen, who expects a mortgage rate range of 5.9% to 6.9%.
That boils down to an average of 6.4% for the 30-year fixed for all of 2026.
Then there’s First American, which is forecasting mortgage rates to stay in the low-6% range. Again, like most of the others.
And HousingWire’s President Diego Sanchez, who has called for a rate range of 5.75% to 6.75%.
That seems fairly reasonable given mortgage rates tend to move around quite a bit in any given year, as opposed to staying in one place.
If I left you out, reach out and I’ll add your prediction as well!
The Truth’s 2026 Mortgage Rate Prediction
First quarter 2026: 5.875%
Second quarter 2026: 6.375%
Third quarter 2026: 6.125%
Fourth quarter 2026: 5.75%
Okay, my turn finally. I don’t just provide a range like some of the other forecasters. I attempt to break it down by quarter, using historical data to come up with my predictions.
In the first quarter of 2026, I expect the 30-year fixed to fall below 6%! Gasp! I know, it sounds crazy.
But as I said, I expected that to happen in 2025 and it hasn’t yet. With a little more time, I think we get there.
As for why, it’s continued labor weakness. The jobs reports have gotten increasingly ugly as the year has gone on.
And I don’t see much reason for them to improve anytime soon. Thus I think a couple more bad jobs reports push rates just below 6%, call it 5.875%.
However, there will be resistance because it’s a big threshold. And it requires the 10-year bond yield to fall below 4%, another big point of resistance.
If somehow the economy shows more resilience than expected, it might go differently.
I then expect mortgage rates to rise in the second quarter, as they always seem to (peak home buying season, go figure). Call it 6.375%.
Then I see us going back down to 6.125% in the third quarter, and finally back to sub-6% levels in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Not sure exactly how low, but it’s possible we get to 5.75% or even lower if (weak) economic data warrants it.
So not a huge range, but there will be days and weeks when rates perhaps go higher or lower. So keep your eyes peeled if you’re in the market for a mortgage in 2026!
All in all, 2026 should be a good year for mortgage rates, with the lowest rates since 2022, which is when finally they surged higher.
Read on: How to track mortgage rates with ease.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.